A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have won 27 of 28 series. The only exception to this dominant trend occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Of these 28 series, 20 ended in sweeps. The Florida Panthers are eyeing a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to push the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, 25 of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games. Despite the daunting odds, the Oilers still believe in their chances.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are now 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton showed some fight in the third period Thursday, scoring goals through Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to cut the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 is that the Oilers were down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team boasting a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Edmonton's undoing came in an embarrassing span of 6 minutes and 19 seconds in the second period, during which Florida scored three goals. The Oilers had just tied the game at 1-1 through a Warren Foegele breakaway goal. A turnover by Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, who scored to make it 2-1, deflating the crowd at 9:12. It became 3-1 at 13:57 after solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk forced a Darnell Nurse turnover, which Sam Bennett converted for his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, finishing a 2-on-1 opportunity that the Oilers allowed to develop from deep within their attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Edmonton made numerous mistakes, but their star players did not score any goals. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm found the net, but the Oilers' five leading scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—did not.
These five players also run the Oilers' power play, which has been ineffective against the Florida penalty kill, which stands at a perfect 10-for-10 in the series. Edmonton's power play had been converting at over 37%, the best in the postseason before coming up against Florida.
McDavid has hit the score sheet with assists on three of the Oilers' four goals in the series. The Oilers' star is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason. The only other player to achieve this was Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. Other key players have yet to score a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
"Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," Draisaitl stated.
"We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of," Draisaitl added.
"It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil," said Stuart Skinner, showcasing his belief in the team's ability to make a historic comeback.
Coach Kris Knoblauch echoed this sentiment: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed, and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
"There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing," Knoblauch continued.
Reflecting on the game, Skinner said, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl acknowledged the uphill battle the team faces: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."