In a decisive move reflecting broader league trends, the New York Giants have opted not to use the franchise tag on star running back Saquon Barkley for the second consecutive year. Instead, the organization chose to let him explore the free agency market, which culminated in a three-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles worth $12.5 million per season.
Strategic Considerations and Financial Implications
The decision was influenced by a variety of factors, including financial considerations and positional priorities. Although Giants owner John Mara would have preferred to retain Barkley, it became evident that a different strategic direction was necessary. General Manager Joe Schoen took a pragmatic approach, emphasizing the importance of "bang for your buck" and opting to delay the acquisition of a new running back until the second week of free agency.
Central to the Giants' strategy was Schoen's reliance on performance data, particularly focusing on the age of running backs. Historically, data suggests a decline in running back performance at the age of 27. "The data says that running backs decline at 27," Schoen pointed out, emphasizing the statistical trends that influenced this tactical move.
Aging and Performance Data
Barkley, who amassed 900 carries during his collegiate career at Penn State, has endured six physically taxing seasons in the NFL. Comparisons to other running backs provided further context; for instance, Christian McCaffrey also reached the age-27 mark in 2023, a critical juncture for running backs according to the data. Meanwhile, players like Frank Gore managed to excel into their 30s, while others such as Derrick Henry have shown a decline in yards per carry despite maintaining impressive yards per game. Aaron Jones, on the other hand, has seen an improvement in his performance post-27, making him somewhat of an outlier.
The Broader League Trend
The Giants' decision regarding Barkley is not an isolated case but rather reflective of a growing trend within the NFL. Teams are increasingly hesitant to offer large contracts to running backs who are approaching or have surpassed the 27-year threshold. This trend underscores a more cautious and data-driven approach to roster management, particularly at a position known for its physical demands and relatively short peaks of productivity.
Despite the fiscal prudence and data support for the Giants' decision, Barkley's departure marks the end of an era for the franchise. His contributions over the past six seasons were significant, and his move to the Eagles will undoubtedly be closely watched by fans and analysts alike.
Ultimately, this decision encapsulates the meticulous balancing act that NFL teams must perform, weighing the immediate impact of star players against long-term strategic goals and financial constraints. As Joe Schoen aptly summarized, it's about getting the best "bang for your buck."