New Orleans Saints at a Crossroads with Alvin Kamara
The New Orleans Saints find themselves at a pivotal moment with their star running back, Alvin Kamara. Following his early exit from the final practice of minicamp last week, Kamara's future with the team remains uncertain. According to Kamara's agent, Brad Cicala, the premature departure stemmed from contract-related issues.
Kamara did not attend the Organized Team Activities (OTAs) this offseason but did show up for the mandatory minicamp, a routine he has followed for several years. Despite the current uncertainty, Kamara has expressed his desire to stay in New Orleans for the long haul, emphasizing his commitment to the team last year.
Under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, Kamara is expected to be a focal point of the Saints' 2024 offense. Kamara has thrived in previous offensive schemes, catching at least 80 passes in each of his first four seasons and scoring double-digit touchdowns in 2017, 2018, and 2020.
Comparison with Christian McCaffrey
Kubiak, who served as the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers last season, witnessed running back Christian McCaffrey's tremendous success under his system. McCaffrey rushed for a career-high 1,459 yards. The 28-year-old McCaffrey, a first-round pick for the Carolina Panthers in 2017, received a two-year contract extension in June that will pay him an average of $19 million annually and guarantee him $24 million. Kamara, who turns 29 on July 25, is one year older than McCaffrey.
According to the Roster Management System, running backs with at least four seasons of 100 rushing attempts peak at age 27 and steadily decline in yardage after that age. Rushing attempts also peak at age 27, while rushing average peaks between ages 24-26.
Factors Affecting Kamara's Performance
Several external factors have contributed to Kamara’s statistical decline. He was suspended for the first three games of the 2023 season for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy. Additionally, the Saints had significant struggles with their offensive line and faced difficulties scoring in the red zone during the first half of the season.
Kamara's cap number of $18.55 million in 2024 is the highest on the team, due to previous contract restructures in 2022 and 2023. While a restructure would not provide Kamara with any new money, it would temporarily create cap space by converting a portion of his base salary into a signing bonus. This move would lower his cap number for the current year while increasing it in future years.
Financial Implications and Future Outlook
If the Saints choose to release Kamara in 2025 without altering his contract, they could save anywhere from $18.9 million to $25 million against the salary cap. However, this number is influenced by Kamara's inflated $22.4 million base salary for 2025, which would likely be addressed if Kamara remains with the team.
The Saints have about a month before they report to training camp in Irvine, California. Notably, Kamara missed five practices at the end of the 2020 offseason before receiving a new contract. He is currently signed through the 2025 season.
Quotes
"I haven't had a chance to talk to him so I'm not sure why he wasn't out here for the rest of practice," said head coach Dennis Allen.
Kamara has made his intentions clear: "I want a lifetime contract. I want to be here forever," he stated. He added, "You look at the history of this offense, I'll just say it's good for the running back."
Expressing excitement about working with Kubiak, Kamara remarked, "You watch some of the past offenses that Klint has been able to operate and most recent, you look at Christian [McCaffrey] and what he was able to do. I'm excited for that."
He continued, "I'm not a stat dude. I don't stack myself up against other guys. You talk about Christian and all, me and Christian talk. I enjoy watching him play. I enjoy when he's able to do the things he does. Personally, I enjoy when I'm having success. But I think my message has been the same since I've been here ... whatever's asked of me, I just do that."
Quarterback Derek Carr shared an anecdote to highlight Kamara's talent: "There was a play last year where I handed him the ball, and I remember I was like 'Well that’s not open.' ... I turned around and he hit an explosive burst that I've never seen before. And when he showed up [at minicamp], I handed him the ball, and it just feels different."
Lastly, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak acknowledged Kamara's professionalism: "I have talked to him when he was here the last couple of days. He's been great, talked to him on the phone, even when he was gone [for OTAs]. We've been in constant communication."