Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team is a delicate balance of strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. While high draft picks are certainly critical, consistent production from players selected beyond those top spots often determines the success of a fantasy season. This year, several key players offer both promise and caution for fantasy managers looking to make impactful decisions.
Joel Embiid: A High-Risk, High-Reward Proposition
Joel Embiid is projected to average over 60 fantasy points per game, a continuation of his performance last season where he averaged 61. However, Embiid's history of injuries can't be ignored. He has never played more than 68 games in a season and only suited up for 39 games last year. These injury concerns make Embiid a high-risk, high-reward selection, forcing fantasy managers to weigh his potential for massive point production against the likelihood of missed games.
Stalwarts of Reliability: Jokic and Durant
On the other hand, Nikola Jokic offers fantasy managers a reliable choice. Jokic played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69 games in his career, making him a consistent selection. Likewise, Kevin Durant, entering his 18th NBA season, played 75 games last season. Now 36 years old, Durant remains a cornerstone in any fantasy roster despite his veteran status.
LeBron, AD, and the Age Factor
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are two other names that demand attention. LeBron, turning 40 this season, played 71 games last year but averaged only 52 games over the previous three seasons, raising questions about his durability. Anthony Davis, who played 76 games last season, similarly struggles with consistency, having averaged 44 games over the past three seasons. Notably, Davis has played more than 70 games in consecutive seasons only once in his 12-year career. Their availability could significantly influence the fate of fantasy teams relying on their performances.
The Enigma of Kyrie Irving
Kyrie Irving remains one of the most intriguing fantasy basketball players. Averaging 26.7 points per game with impressive shooting percentages—49.3% from the field, 39.9% from three-point range, and 91.2% from the free-throw line over his last five seasons—Irving's talent is undeniable. Despite ranking 22nd in fantasy points per game last season, his overall impact was diminished due to limited availability, averaging just 44.2 games per season over the past five years. He finished as the 47th highest in total fantasy points, underscoring the importance of his presence on the court.
Zion Williamson: Potential Meets Inconsistency
Another player with tantalizing potential is Zion Williamson. Between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, Williamson averaged 26.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. His performance over a 10-game stretch late last season was particularly impressive, with a 27.1 PPG average. However, his availability remains a major concern. Williamson played only 90 of a possible 236 regular-season games during that period, though he did manage a career-high 70 games last season. This inconsistency presents a challenging dilemma for fantasy managers.
Kawhi Leonard: Talent Tempered by Injuries
Kawhi Leonard, who played 68 games last season and finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league, also comes with caveats. Leonard missed 12 of the Clippers' last 14 games, including the playoffs, due to knee issues. His potential for significant fantasy contributions is tempered by his injury history, posing a gamble for any manager who picks him.
The Young Star: Ja Morant
At 25 years old, Ja Morant's talent and potential are unquestionable. He averaged 26.7 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game over the past three seasons. However, Morant missed 73 games last season due to suspension and injury, significantly affecting his reliability. His ability to stay on the court will be crucial for those considering him a cornerstone of their fantasy roster.
In the ever-evolving landscape of fantasy basketball, the key to success often lies in the detailed scrutiny of players' past performances and potential future contributions. Whether choosing proven veterans like Nikola Jokic and Kevin Durant or high-risk, high-reward players like Joel Embiid and Zion Williamson, making informed decisions will be the cornerstone of building a winning team.