The Minnesota Twins faced a tough defeat at Progressive Field, surrendering a three-run lead to lose 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. Griffin Jax was at the center of the heartbreak, giving up a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning.
The loss is part of a worrying trend for the Twins, who have now lost 18 of their last 27 games. This slide has significantly impacted their playoff chances; having once held a 95.4% chance of reaching the postseason as of September 5, the Twins' odds have now dwindled to 76.4% according to FanGraphs. Despite maintaining the third AL wild-card spot, their lead has shrunk to just 1 1/2 games.
Offensive Woes
One of the key issues plaguing the Twins has been their bats. In 12 of their last 27 games, the team failed to score more than three runs. Over this stretch, they're hitting .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Even more concerning is their performance with the bases empty, where they're hitting just .272, the fourth worst in the league in this scenario.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," said pitcher Pablo López, encapsulating the team's current predicament.
Manager Rocco Baldelli echoed similar sentiments, stressing the need for a more holistic effort: "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Max Kepler is expected to return, which could provide a much-needed boost. Additionally, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown flashes of their potential, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month. However, the team needs more than occasional flashes to turn around their fortunes.
Struggles in the Bullpen and Rotation
Initially, the bullpen had been a strength for the Twins, maintaining a 3.84 ERA and ranking tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41) in their first 123 games. But in the last 27 games, the bullpen’s ERA ballooned to 5.47, and they posted a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
"It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," lamented Jax, underscoring the fatigue that's set in.
The starting rotation hasn’t fared much better. During the 27-game stretch, the rotation has posted a 6.07 ERA, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. The relentless schedule has only compounded these issues, with the team playing 17 games in the last 18 days.
Recent Additions and Hope
In an attempt to inject fresh talent into the roster, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season. Derek Falvey, Twins' VP of Baseball Operations, is optimistic about the addition. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," Falvey explained.
The Competitions' Push
While the Twins labor to stay afloat, the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners have surged, now just two games behind them in the standings. Both rivals have been in good form, with the Tigers notably going 23-10 in their last 33 games. However, the Twins do hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, which could prove pivotal in the final stretch of the season.
The Twins' recent performances have cast a shadow of doubt over their postseason prospects. The team must find a way to reclaim their early-season form. Reflecting on the team's struggles, Baldelli said, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
The upcoming games will be crucial in determining whether the Twins can halt their slide and make a strong push for the playoffs. As Baldelli emphasized, "We have to put nine innings together." They need to do this sooner rather than later if they hope to keep their playoff dreams alive.